Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First quarter (April-June) of 2018-19

The  Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of  Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2018-19, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q1 of 2018-19 are presented below:

I           ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a)        At constant (2011-2012) prices

3.         GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `33.74 lakh crore, as against `31.18 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.2 percent.  Quarterly GVA at basic price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `31.63 lakh crore, as against `29.29 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.0 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4. The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2018-19 over Q1 of 2017-18 are ‘manufacturing,‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’‘construction’ and‘public administration, defence and other services’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’  and financial, real estate and professional services is estimated to be 5.3 percent, 0.1 percent, 6.7 percent, and 6.5 percent respectively during this period.

5.         Industry analysis

            The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2017-18 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2018-19. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue.

Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport, etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period April-June 2018-19 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-June 2018-19 based on data received from BSE/NSE hasbeen taken into account.  Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1     Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 5.3 percent as compared to growth of 3.0percent in Q1 2017-18. According  to  the  information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q1 of 2018-19, the production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses registered growth rates of 15.0 percent, 1.2 percent,15.6 percent and 17.3 percent respectively during  the  Rabi  season of  agriculture year 2017-18 (which ended in June 2018). Among the commercial crops, the production ofoilseeds registered a growth of 5.6 percent during the Rabi season of 2017-18. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 55.1 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector.  Around 44.9 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of about 8.1 percent in Q1 of 2018-19.

Mining and quarrying

5.2.Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 0.1 percent as compared to growth of 1.7 percent in Q1 2017-18.  The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of13.2percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to (-) 4.4 percent, 0.3 percent, 4.0 percent and 1.1 percent during Q1 of 2017-18.

Manufacturing

5.3   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 13.5 percent as compared to growth of (-) 1.8 percent in Q1 2017-18.   The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over75 percent in the manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE.  The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of over 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of 5.2 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 1.6 percent during Q1 of 2017-18.

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

5.4   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q1 2018-19 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  grew by 7.3 percent as compared to growth of 7.1 percent in Q1 2017-18.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 4.9 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 5.3 percent in Q1 of 2017-18.

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 8.7 percent as compared to growth of 1.8 percent in Q1 2017-18.  Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement, consumption of finished steel and IIP of non-metallic minerals registered growth rates of 14.2 percent, 8.4 percent and 10.5 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to (-) 3.3 percent,7.6 percent and (-) 3.2 percent respectively, in Q1 of 2017-18.

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6.   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 6.7 percent as compared to growth of 8.4 percent in Q1 2017-18. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth.  With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30th November, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 4.0 percent, 3.7 percent and 17.1 percent respectively, during April-June, 2018-19. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 8.2 percent and 1.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2018-19.

Financial, real estate and professional services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 8.4 percent in Q1 2017-18.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 74.6 percent.The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for Real estate, business services andcomputer related activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 6.8 percent and 10.9 percent respectively as compared to 12.8 percent and 8.2 percent respectively during 2017-18.

                                                                  

Public administration, defence and other services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 9.9 percent as  compared to growth of 13.5 percent in Q1 2017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments excluding subsidies grew by 14.5 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 19.8 percent in Q1 of 2017-18. Taxes on products grew by 23.5 percent in Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 13.6 percent in Q1 of 2017-18.

(b)       At current prices

6.         GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `44.33 lakh crore, as against `38.97 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 13.8 percent. GVA at Basic Price at current prices in Q1 of 2018-19, is estimated at `41.02 lakh crore, as against `36.34 lakh crore in Q1, 2017-18, showing an increase of 12.9 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (7.0 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (18.0 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (17.7 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (13.2 percent) ‘construction’ (13.8 percent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ (11.7 percent), ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ (12.1 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services’ (15.4 percent).

(c)        Price indices used as deflators

7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups – food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities has risen by 1.5 percent, 15.8 percent, 3.8 percent, 5.6 percent and 4.7 percent respectively during Q1 of 2018-19 as against (-) 1.7 percent, 6.1 percent, 2.7 percent, 0.7 percent and 2.3 percent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 4.8 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 over Q1 of 2017-18.

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.  The components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `25.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `22.76 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18.  At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 18.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `17.06 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 58.4 percent and 54.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.4 per cent and 54.7 per cent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `4.91 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18.At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.97lakhcrore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `3.69 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 12.5 percent and11.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 12.6 percent and11.8percent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `12.75 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `11.20 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `10.65 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `9.68 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 28.8 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.7 percent and 31.0percent, respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

12.       Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at constant (2011-2012) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2018 (Q2 of 2018-19) will be on 30.11.2018.

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN

Q1(APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-2012 prices)

Industry

APRIL–JUNE(Q1)

Gross Value Addedat Basic Prices for Q1(` incrore)

Percentage change Over previous year Q1

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

  1. Agriculture, forestry &fishing

386986

398609

419747

3.0

5.3

  1. Mining &quarrying

99129

100811

100954

1.7

0.1

  1. Manufacturing

510673

501599

569094

-1.8

13.5

  1. Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

62114

66537

71383

7.1

7.3

  1. Construction

225077

229196

249103

1.8

8.7

  1. Trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

517644

560913

598724

8.4

6.7

  1. Financial, real estate & professional services

659189

714789

761405

8.4

6.5

  1. Public administration, defence& other services

314250

356731

392211

13.5

9.9

GVA at Basic Price

2775063

2929185

3162622

5.6

8.0

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-2012 prices)

Item

APRIL– JUNE(Q1)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1(` incrore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

1. Private Final Consumption

Expenditure(PFCE)

1595219

1705974

1852663

54.7

54.9

2. Government Final Consumption

Expenditure(GFCE)

313990

369303

397215

11.8

11.8

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

960255

968141

1065217

31.0

31.6

4. Change in Stocks

22498

21840

23718

0.7

0.7

5. Valuables

37008

82235

75650

2.6

2.2

6. Exports

603715

639145

720410

20.5

21.4

7. Less Imports

625621

741150

834103

23.8

24.7

8.Discrepancies

46358

72929

73213

2.3

2.2

GDP

2953421

3118417

3373983

100.0

100.0

GDP (% change over previous year)

5.6

8.2

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICESIN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at current prices)

Industry

APRIL– JUNE(Q1)

Gross Value Added at Basic Prices for Q1 (` in crore)

Percentage change Over previous year Q1

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

  1. Agriculture, forestry &fishing

563170

566713

606107

0.6

7.0

  1. Mining &quarrying

83403

94696

111699

13.5

18.0

  1. Manufacturing

575041

579718

682421

0.8

17.7

  1. Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

90327

97388

110246

7.8

13.2

  1. Construction

260680

271537

309052

4.2

13.8

  1. Trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

602741

671076

749349

11.3

11.7

  1. Financial, real estate & professional services

767018

859451

963864

12.1

12.1

  1. Public administration, defence & other services

421386

493286

569466

17.1

15.4

GVA at Basic Price

3363766

3633866

4102203

8.0

12.9

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDPIN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at current prices)

Item

APRIL –JUNE (Q1)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1(` in crore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

1. Private Final Consumption

Expenditure(PFCE)

2082484

2276387

2589809

58.4

58.4

2. Government Final Consumption

Expenditure(GFCE)

407970

490957

553398

12.6

12.5

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

1089771

1120067

1275225

28.7

28.8

4. Change in Stocks

24726

24522

27470

0.6

0.6

5. Valuables

40534

84431

71687

2.2

1.6

6. Exports

704192

760244

892035

19.5

20.1

7. Less Imports

757439

912714

1069029

23.4

24.1

8.Discrepancies

6254

53504

92770

1.4

2.1

GDP

3598492

3897399

4433365

100.0

100.0

GDP (% change over previous year)

8.3

13.8

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